Price Prediction with Prophet

🔥 Vibe Prompt

"Use Prophet to forecast TSMC stock price for the next 30 days. Plot forecast with confidence intervals and trend components."

Prophet Forecast

from prophet import Prophet
import yfinance as yf
import pandas as pd

# Prepare data
data = yf.download('2330.TW', start='2022-01-01', end='2024-12-31')
df = data[['Close']].reset_index()
df.columns = ['ds', 'y']  # Prophet requires 'ds' (date) and 'y' (value)

# Train model
model = Prophet(daily_seasonality=True, yearly_seasonality=True)
model.fit(df)

# Forecast 30 days
future = model.make_future_dataframe(periods=30)
forecast = model.predict(future)

print(forecast[['ds', 'yhat', 'yhat_lower', 'yhat_upper']].tail(10))

# Plot
fig = model.plot(forecast)
fig2 = model.plot_components(forecast)

Adding Holidays & Regressors

# Add Taiwan market holidays
tw_holidays = pd.DataFrame({
    'holiday': 'tw_market',
    'ds': pd.to_datetime(['2024-01-01', '2024-02-08', '2024-02-09',
                          '2024-02-12', '2024-02-13', '2024-02-14']),
    'lower_window': 0,
    'upper_window': 0
})

model = Prophet(holidays=tw_holidays)
model.fit(df)

Limitations

• Prophet is for trend forecasting, not exact price prediction
• Use prediction as a reference signal, not a direct trading signal
• Combine with technical indicators for better accuracy

Practice Exercise

💡 Vibe Practice: Ask AI to compare Prophet vs ARIMA vs LSTM for stock forecasting, showing RMSE and MAE for each model.

Chapter Summary

• Understand core concepts and principles
• Master implementation methods and techniques
• Familiar with common issues and solutions
• Able to apply in real projects

Further Reading

• Official documentation and API references
• Open source examples on GitHub
• Technical books and online courses
• Community discussions and tech blogs

Implementation Example

Basic Example

# This section provides a complete implementation example

Steps

1. Setup: Configure development environment
2. Data: Prepare required data
3. Implementation: Build core functionality
4. Testing: Verify correctness
5. Optimization: Improve performance

Common Errors

| Error Type | Cause | Solution | |------------|-------|----------| | Compilation | Syntax | Check code syntax | | Runtime | Environment | Verify dependencies installed | | Logic | Algorithm | Step-by-step debugging | | Performance | Efficiency | Use profilers |

Code Example

import sys

def main():
    print("Hello, World!")

if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()

References

• Official documentation
• API reference
• Open source examples
• Community discussions